2026-04-28 → 2026-05-24 · 486 resolved paper trades on Kalshi commodity binaries. The pricing model's edge predicted realized profit, and predicted probabilities matched outcomes — the evidence that armed live RSA order placement.
The window's standout return came from crude oil. From late April, escalating U.S.–Iran conflict and disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz priced a fresh geopolitical risk premium into WTI and Brent. Repeated failures of peace talks, doubts that OPEC+ spare capacity could replace the lost barrels, and forecast upgrades from Goldman Sachs and HSBC kept the futures strip climbing faster than Kalshi's binary markets repriced their "above $X" strikes. The pricing core saw it first: the rising forward curve fed straight into the log-normal fit, so contract after contract the model's P(price > target) sat well above the market's implied probability, and the Kelly engine kept taking the YES side of the rally. The temporary peace-driven dips (early May) were exactly that — temporary — and the engine's directional read held through them.